When a "highest temperature in 2 days" market opens, the crowd sets prices based on weather forecasts — giving a low No price on the bracket they consider most likely.

The hypothesis: 2-day forecasts are not precise enough to reliably hit a specific 1–2°F bracket. Therefore, always buying the lowest No price shortly after market open should win more often than it loses — and produce positive expected value over time.

The app registers markets as they open during each poll cycle, recording the No price at first observation. The ★ Fav column marks the bracket with the highest Yes price (community favourite = lowest No price) — the most relevant data point for the hypothesis.

P&L = profit if No wins at the observed price; −100% if Yes wins.