Polymarket offers markets on exact post-count brackets for Elon Musk tweets and Trump Truth Social posts — e.g. "Will Elon post 200–219 tweets in May?"

The hypothesis: exact post counts over a period are hard to predict precisely. The crowd's favourite bracket (lowest No price) may not win as reliably as the market implies, making systematic No-buying potentially +EV.

Markets span 2-day, weekly, and monthly windows. Stats use only the ★ favourite bracket per group (highest Yes price per person + period).

P&L = profit if No wins at observed price; −100% if Yes wins.